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Thursday, April 15, 2010
Two wins a season for 17 seasons is… almost nothing?!?
I can’t believe this:
But Brook points out that there is surprisingly little difference between an average goalie and a future Hall of Famer like Brodeur, the New Jersey Devils legend and three-time Stanley Cup winner who has won more games than any other NHL goalie. He notes that Brodeur’s save percentage of 91.4 percent is only 1 percentage point better than the NHL average of 90.4 percent, a difference of only 216.9 goals.
Using a formula that converts a goalie’s save percentage into his teams’ points in the standings, Brook’s research suggests that Brodeur has won only 33.5 more regular season games over the course of his 17 season NHL career than an average goalie, or two games a season.
A Hall of Fame caliber goalie is 34 wins above average in his career, and that’s little difference?
How much should you pay for an NHL win? Let’s see, if you make a team of the worst players in the league, they’ll get paid the league minimum, and they’d probably win say 10 of 82 games, and ignoring league-imposed payroll floors, those guys would get a total salary of 10MM$. An average team of 20 skaters would win 41 of 82 games. The league average payroll is close to 50MM$. So, you are paying 40MM$ to buy some 31 wins, or say 1.3MM$ per win above average. Let’s make it even lower, at 1MM$ per win.
So, the average player makes 2.5MM$ (50MM divided by 20 players), and we add 1MM$ for each win above that.
If Brodeur averaged 2 wins per season over 17 seasons, it’s fair to say that at his peak he was probably +4 wins above average. So, at his peak,he should have been paid 6.5MM$. In 2003-04, he was paid 6.9MM$. Indeed, Roberto Luongo, the likely best goalie in the league, earns 7MM$.
Only 2 wins. The average MLB player is worth “only” two wins above the minor league player, and he earns 8MM$ on the free agent market. When did two wins become “little”?
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