from Amazon
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Tulo
Tulo: extension of 6/119, starting in 2015.
Wow. Tulo was born Oct, 1984. In his last 4 years, rWAR is at 19 wins, and fWAR is at 18.
Lucky for us, I just published the WAR aging curves for great players, and Tulo is a standard great player.
In 2011, he will be 27 years old. The historical precedent for players like Tulo is about 16-17 wins from 2011-2014. He’s already being paid for those years.
The extension is for the 6 years starting in 2015. So, we just need to look at years 5 through years 10 from the aging curve for players entering year 1 at age 27. And those 6 years are going to be about 15-16 wins.
Here’s what happens:
Year $/win WAR
2011 $4.50
2012 $5.00
2013 $5.50
2014 $6.00
2015 $6.50 3.9
2016 $7.00 3.4
2017 $7.50 2.9
2018 $8.00 2.4
2019 $8.50 1.9
2020 $9.00 1.4
I’m starting the $ per win at 4.5MM$ in 2011, and going up by 0.5MM$ each year. Is that a good estimate? Bad estimate? I don’t know. We’re all in the same boat here. His WAR in 2015 (age 31) would be 3.9. And then we drop it by 0.5 wins per year. I know that is a good estimate, because that’s the typical pattern that we’ve seen historically.
Anyway, all we have to do is multiply the second column by the third column, and add up the numbers. And what do we get?
$119MM$.
Seriously.
Listen, I know I got lucky here. I could have started the $ per win at 5.0. I could have instead increased the $ per win by 7% or something (that would have gotten me to 119.6MM$). Whatever, that’s not the main point.
The main point is that we have a framework to analyze the deal, and we can plug in reasonable numbers to see how we could get to 119MM$. And, we were able to do so with reasonable numbers.
Good job on the Rockies and Tulowitzki for coming up with a reasonably justifiable deal.
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