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Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Trying not to win so hard
Joe Maddon:
“There’s a definite clamor to be raised if we were winning, 9-0,” Maddon said. “No doubt. And I’d be the first one to raise it. But if you’re losing, 9-0 ...
When the other team stops attempting to score runs, then we will also.”
His last line is what the team that is leading is saying, as they run up the score. But, he’s using that to justify his position as the trailing team? I can only presume that the writer took his quote out of context.
Anyway, when should you stop trying to run up the score? First of all, you have to be leading. It’s never wrong for a trailing team to continue to try to win, and do whatever it takes. What if we look when the LI is less than .005. That is, your actions will yield less than one-half of one-percent of what it would yield under normal situations.
This point happens in the bottom of the 8th inning, up by 8 runs or more (and some select base/out situations when up by 7).
In the Maddon case, it was the bottom of the 6th, and they were behind by 9. In this case, the LI was 0.07 (actions yield 7% of what they would normally yield) to start the inning. That is nowhere near our threshhold of “slowing down”.
So, I’m calling it: when the home team is up by 8, in the bottom of the 8th, they should tone it down. If it’s the bottom of the 7th, you have to be up by 9. Bottom of the 6th, up by 11.
If it’s the visiting team: in the top of the 9th, up by 8; top of the 8th, up by 9, top of the 7th, up by 12.
***
Hat tip: Repoz. Is it too early (or too late) to bestow on Repoz the title of Greatest Linker to Stories? Dude finds everything, everywhere. Unfortunately, we actually need Repoz to come up with a title deserving of Repoz.
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