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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Monday, March 15, 2010

Total WARP by original signing team

By Tangotiger, 03:27 PM

Love the premise, love the execution:

NL EAST    Original W-L     Actual W-L   Payroll
Braves           100
-62          86-76   $100M
Phillies          86
-76          93-69   $138M
Nationals         80
-82          59-103   $69M
Marlins           77
-85          87-75    $38M  
Mets              68
-94          70-92   $142M 


NL CENTRAL Original W
-L     Actual W-L   Payroll
Cardinals         87
-75          91-71   $103M
Pirates           76
-86          62-99    $48M
Astros            69
-93          74-88   $108M
Cubs              69
-93          83-78   $142M
Brewers           68
-94          80-82    $90M
Reds              64
-98          78-84    $73M


NL WEST    Original W
-L     Actual W-L   Payroll
Rockies          108
-54          92-70   $84M
Dodgers          102
-60          95-67  $132M
Diamondbacks      87
-75          70-92   $74M
Giants            81
-81          88-74   $95M
Padres            55
-107         75-87   $43M


AL EAST    Original W
-L     Actual W-L   Payroll
Blue Jays         95
-67          75-87    $84M
Red Sox           89
-73          95-67   $140M
Yankees           88
-74         103-59   $220M
Orioles           68
-94          64-98    $79M
Rays              66
-96          84-78    $71M


AL CENTRAL Original W
-L     Actual W-L   Payroll
Twins             85
-77          87-76    $73M
Tigers            81
-81          86-77   $139M
Royals            79
-83          65-97    $82M
Indians           74
-88          79-83    $77M
White Sox         72
-90          65-97   $105M


AL WEST    Original W
-L     Actual W-L   Payroll
Mariners         107
-55          85-77   $102M
Rangers           89
-73          87-75    $77M
Athletics         87
-75          75-87    $62M
Angels            69
-93          97-65   $122M

Ideally, there would be a cap of around 6500 PA and 1460 IP or so.  The Rockies and Mariners must have a bunch of players that simply kept piling up PA and IP (I’d guess).

On the other end, you simply give everyone 0 WAR for any shortfall in PA or IP (i.e., no change to current process).  Presumably, the Padres not only had virtually no talent, but was not even able to field a complete team.  55/162 = .340 win%.

(1) Comments • 2010/03/15 • SabermetricsTalent_Distribution
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March 15, 2010
Total WARP by original signing team