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Friday, January 22, 2010
Torii v Sarge Jr
Rally has a post up, where he compares the results of batted balls to CF and ends with this:
How do these ratings correspond to actual team runs? With Hunter in the field, the Angels gave up only 4.12 runs per 27 outs. With Matthews, they gave up 5.33.
When I look at WOWY: the average CF converts 10% of all balls in play into an out. Torii converted 10.5% into an out. If you look at the batters he faced, they were pretty random. The parks he played in were slightly favorable to him, and the pitchers were also a bit favorable to him And the spread of GB/FB were even more favorable. All-in-all, Torii was fairly average to a bit above average.
Matthews? He converted 9.5% into outs. His pitchers actually were more prone to not have balls hit to CF (historically). Otherwise, he faced similar conditions as Hunter (batters, parks, GB/FB distribution). So, we can pretty much focus on the fact that Torii got 10.5% outs and Matthews got 9.5%.
In a full season, there are roughly 4000 balls in play, making Torii +40 outs better than Matthews, or +32 runs or so. UZR has Hunter as 36 runs per 150 games better.
Even the Fans think Torii is really good and Matthews as below average, with the difference about two standard deviations apart, or roughly 20 runs.
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