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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Todd Walker, Jose Vidro

By Tangotiger, 02:53 PM

A great post on USS Mariner comparing Todd Walker to Jose Vidro:
http://ussmariner.com/2007/03/27/todd-walker/

And there’s more.  The Bill James sim scores has each player as the other’s top comp.  They are both 2B, with around 1200 career games played, with Walker being 1 year and 3 months older.  They are two of the three worst-fielding 2B according to the Fans.  Marcel’s forecast: Vidro .346/.415 (490 PA), Walker .349/.438 (495 PA), which is fairly close (0.3 wins apart in Walker’s favor).  The other three forecasters at Fangraphs have Vidro ahead by a bit higher margin.  In short, both around league average hitters, and, as fielders, they are fine DH.  This makes them, at best, +1 WAR.

USSM dealt alot with Vidro, so let me give you the skinny: Mariners are paying 12MM for the next two years (plus a vesting option in 2009, and Nats are paying 4MM for the next two years).  Todd Walker won an arbitration award for 4MM, and Padres are walking away by paying him 1MM.

In short, the Padres don’t want to pay an extra 3MM for Walker, which is pretty much a borderline kind of play for a typical team, but makes more sense given the Padres depth at the Walker positions (1B, power-hitting, slick-fielding, and young Adrian Gonzalez; 2B, Giles, who is in the same class as Walker as a hitter, but a much better fielder).

And the Mariners, who intend to only use Vidro as DH… well, not only are they paying him all that money, but they had to give up players as well.  I love Jose Vidro, as does all Expos fans.  Our hope is that he produces far more than he can.

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March 28, 2007
Todd Walker, Jose Vidro