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Monday, January 18, 2010
To onside or not
Brian Burke gives us the numbers:
Onside kicks, when expected, are successful just 20% of the time. A successful kick would have meant a first down at the Chargers’ own 40 or so. This equates to a win probability (WP) of 0.26. A failed onside attempt gives the Jets a first down at the same field position, giving the Chargers a 0.07 WP. On net, an onside attempt is worth:
(0.20 * 0.26) + (0.80 * 0.07) = 0.11 WP
A conventional deep kick likely gives the Jets a first down at about their own 30 (28 is median, 33 is the average). This equates to a 0.14 WP for the Chargers. The deep kick seems to be the percentage call, especially if you have faith in your defense to stop the run. It’s close, so either decision is defensible if there is a clear reason to prefer one over the other.
How close? If you treat the .140 chance of winning the game on a normal kick as the baseline, then the breakeven point on the onside kick is… 37%. Well, that doesn’t sound like close at all to me. What is that .140 is not the baseline, but it’s actually .130? In that case, the chance of recovering your onside kick has to be 32%.
In order for it to be “close”, you have to drop the likely chance of winning the game on a regular kick to .120, and the chance of recovering your onside kick to 26%. I mean, I suppose that is kinda close. But, it better be a very strong hunch you are playing.
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