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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Monday, August 14, 2006

Tim, Tim, Tim, Tim, Tim

By Tangotiger, 11:31 AM

http://firejoemorgan.blogspot.com/2006/08/timmeh.html

There is nothing that opens up big innings any more than a leadoff walk. Leadoff home runs don’t do it. Leadoff singles, maybe. But a leadoff walk. It changes the mindset of a pitcher. Since he walked the first hitter, now all of a sudden he wants to find the fatter part of the plate with the succeeding hitters. And that could make for a big inning.

The chance of a guy scoring from a leadoff single or a leadoff walk is virtually the same (about 40%).  It’s as simple as that.  I know we want it to mean something more, like “a leadoff walk means the pitcher doesn’t have it right now”, or whathaveyou.  It certainly sounds exciting and plausible.  But, so did this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flat_Earth_Society

Tim, Tim, Tim, Tim, Tim.  Stop it.  Please.  (I’m sure Tim doesn’t read this, but how many degrees of separation between me and him?  Somebody, help me out.)

(5) Comments • 2006/08/15 • SabermetricsMedia
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August 14, 2006
Tim, Tim, Tim, Tim, Tim