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Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Tim Lincecum’s changeup
Ah, Dave Allen is a man after my heart. He looks the effectiveness of Lincecum’s changeup based on the number of preceding fastballs:
Of course you cannot evaluate his changeup in a vacuum, since its success is predicated on his fastball. Here is the average run value, change in run expectancy, of changeup based on the number of fastballs that preceded it in an at-bat. The numbers are averaged over his career not just 2009.
+-------------------+----------------+
| Num. Preceding FB | Run Val of CH |
+-------------------+----------------+
| 0 | -0.014 |
| 1 | -0.026 |
| 2 | -0.028 |
| 3 | -0.023 |
| 4+ | -0.010 |
+-------------------+----------------+
I hope that when Dave talks about the change in run expectancy, he means at the ball-strike count level. I would also like to have seen the “n” (number of times) for each of those rows. As it is (i.e., sample size notwithstanding), it looks like throwing a first-pitch changeup in an at bat is not the best use of his changeup. Of course, he needs to throw it some times as his first pitch, otherwise batters will have one less pitch to look for. He likely needs to throw his changeup on the first pitch a bit less often than he currently does. And, it also looks like he can’t be throwing 4 or more fastballs too much without introducing the changeup, as perhaps the batters might think it’s “due”.
I love everything about the ball-strike count analysis.
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