from Amazon
Monday, December 20, 2010
THT Forecasts
Tim Lincecum:
Year Org Age IP ERA WHIP H K BB HR K/9 BB/9 HR/9 WAR
2011 SFN 27 217 3.26 1.21 186 243 77 17 10.1 3.2 0.7 5.2
2012 SFN 28 214 3.50 1.26 193 236 77 18 9.9 3.2 0.8 4.6
2013 SFN 29 212 3.65 1.29 197 229 77 19 9.7 3.3 0.8 4.2
2014 SFN 30 211 3.81 1.32 202 222 77 19 9.5 3.3 0.8 3.8
2015 SFN 31 209 4.02 1.36 208 214 77 20 9.2 3.3 0.9 3.2
2016 SFN 32 206 4.32 1.42 215 204 78 22 8.9 3.4 1.0 2.5
First thing I focused on was the WAR column. You guys already know what my expectations were, and, basically, they were satisfied as being reasonable prima facie (i.e., passed the sniff test).
Now, I don’t know that I agree with how Brian got there. A pitcher forecast for 217 innings in 2011 would also be forecast for 206 innings in 2016? I’ll say that I haven’t look too much into this issue, but my rule of thumb is the Rule of 10, meaning 10% drop in IP year-to-year. Now, maybe for the elite, like Lincecum, and at such a peak age like 27, it should be more like 5% or even 3% perhaps. The ERA however is climbing by about 0.20 runs per game, whereas my Rule of 10 would have said it would be 0.10 runs per game. So, basically, Brian’s overaggressiveness in one aspect and underaggressiveness in another aspect (relative to my expectations) cancel out to give us what we see.
Nonetheless, I subscribed, partially to support THT and partially to support Brian, both of which I love (as a saberist anyway), and knowing that Brian is always willing to tinker with his model in face of our suggestions.
Ideally, Fangraphs, THT and BPro would merge into one, but we’re not there. Until then, I’m spreading the love.
Recent comments
Older comments
Page 1 of 344 pages 1 2 3 > Last »Complete Archive – By Category
Complete Archive – By Date