from Amazon
Thursday, March 10, 2011
Throw a curve ball and hope for the best
Great stuff from Max.
He says this:
Note: The theoretical values come from a bivariate normal distribution, defined by standard deviations of 0.48 and 1.03 (lateral and upright command values calculated for Halladay in the previous article), and rotated by 41.6 degrees, the estimated arm angle for Doc.
And then shows how the theoretical and observed match. It would seem to me that these numbers are much too large.
He shows that there is a difference in intent based on the count, as we’d expect. I would think, therefore, that if he were to re-run his calculation that got him to 0.48 and 1.03, but doing it by count, that he’d get smaller numbers.
And therefore, we’d see that the theoretical would be much tighter than the observed (if you look at ALL counts). Unless I’m misunderstanding what Max is doing.
Love this stuff!
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