THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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An in-depth analysis of: The sacrifice bunt, batter/pitcher matchups, the intentional base on balls, optimizing a batting lineup, hot and cold streaks, clutch performance, platooning strategies, and much more.
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Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Thoughts from the 2009 New England Symposium on Statistics in Sports

By Tangotiger, 11:33 AM

Jeremy gives us his:

With nobody on in a one run game, the break-even rate of stealing second is only 54%. In a two-plus run game, it’s 84%. With regards to the bunt, Tippett found that good bunters should continue to bunt thanks to the possibility of an error or hit, and that in the context where you’re playing for one run, bunting is often sensible depending on the hitter and upcoming batters. It seems to me that the guys who wrote The Book came up with similar conclusions. Of course, the real stuff Tippett does for the Red Sox is proprietary and can hardly be discussed.

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September 30, 2009
Thoughts from the 2009 New England Symposium on Statistics in Sports