THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Monday, October 08, 2007

The sports world according to Bill James

Yesteday, Bill James said this:

In the NBA, the element of predetermination is simply too high. Simply stated, the best team wins too often… So how should the NBA correct this? Lengthen the shot clock. Shorten the games. Move in the 3-point line. Shorten the playoffs.

14 months ago, I said this:

14 NBA games tells you as much as 36 NHL games. On top of which, 16 NBA teams make the playoffs. NBA games need to be cut down from 48 minutes to something alot less.
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In order to get more drama in the NBA, you need to cut down the season to 32 games, or cut the game down to something like 12 minutes. For the NFL, you need a 28-game schedule. Those schedules will have the same reliability as an NHL schedule of 82 games and an MLB schedule of 162 games.

What bugs me though is when he said this:

What is the “perfect balance” point, at which leagues tend most to thrive? I don’t know, because it hasn’t been studied.

There have been others that have studied the issue since I made the above post, and probably just as many who did so before I did.  Bill James is a self-confessed non-follower of research, publicly stating that he doesn’t keep up.  He really shouldn’t then be commenting on what has or has not been studied, since most would assume that he keeps up with the field.  He’s got my email.  I’m sure he’s got Phil Birnbaum’s email, too.  Even if we’re not necessarily the leaders in research, we’re certainly ones who keep on top of things.