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Thursday, September 17, 2009
The PCA Manifest
I think I linked to it when it was first posted, but just in case, I’ll do it again. It’s from SABRMatt of Baseball Fever fame. He’s also the one who provided us via Wunderground.com with all the weather data.
You have to join the group first, and then you have access:
http://sports.groups.yahoo.com/group/baseball-databank/files/PCAManifest.pdf
Here’s his table of contents:
The PCA Manifest
Created and Published by Matthew Souders
1. Opening Statement of Purpose
1.1. What is PCA?
1.2. Underlying Philosophy
2. Pythagorean Baseball Theory
2.1. Origins
2.2. The Real Behavior of Runs and Wins (The Tango Distribution)
2.3. The Closest Approximation (Pythagenpat)
3. Top Down Strategy and Team Analysis
3.1. Baseball: The Ultimate Team Sport
3.2. DIPS Theory and Team Defense
3.3. Divisions of Labor
3.4. Margins and Degrees of Freedom
3.5. Offensive Equivalency
3.6. League Context Smoothing
3.7. Linear Weights and Correction for League
3.8. Park Factors
3.9. Evaluating a Team (Beyond Wins)
3.10. Filling in the Statistical Gaps
3.11. Dividing Wins Among the Units
4. Breaking Down the Offense
5. Breaking Down the Pitching
5.1. Defense as a Context (Modified DIPS)
5.2. Calculating DNRA
5.3. Dividing the Wins Among the Pitchers
6. Breaking Down the Fielding
6.1. Positional Claim Points
6.2. Dividing Unit Wins among the Players
7. Normalization
7.1. What is Normalization and Why Do It?
7.2. The General Normalization Method
7.3. PCA-BA
8. The Greatness Index
8.1. Defining Greatness
8.2. What is the GI Method?
8.3. Calculating the GI
9. Sources of Error
10. Future Improvements
10.1. The FSIA (A New Way to Look at Contexts)
10.2. Dynamic Linear Weights
10.3. League Quality and Total Normalization
10.4. Inclusion of Play by Play Data
11. Final Acknowledgements
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