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Monday, December 18, 2006
The Official Replacement-Level Thread
A team of .380 nonpitchers with a team of .410 pitchers will win .300 times per game. We know that using the Odds Ratio Method. This becomes our most reasonable guess as to the replacement level.
A team of non-pitchers being .380, means that an average team of nonpitchers would be .500, or +.120 wins per game. In 162 games, that’s +19.4 wins for 8 or 9 full-time players, or +2.3 wins per 162 GP per player. The pitchers are +.090 wins per 9 IP, or +14.6 wins total.
A team of pitchers being .410 would be .380 for starting pitchers, and .470 for relief pitchers. That gap, .090 wins, is what we’d expect for the same pitcher occupying two different roles. The average starter is around a .490 pitcher, and the average reliever is around a .520 pitcher. So, the average starting pitcher is +.110 runs per 9 IP. Assuming 198 IP per starter, the average starter is +2.4 wins per 198 IP. The average reliever is +.050 runs per 9 IP. Assuming 81 IP per reliever, that’s +0.4 wins per 81 IP.
The total number of wins above replacement (.500 minus .300 times 162) is 32.4 wins. The total payroll above the minimum is about 70 million$. So, the average marginal $ per marginal win is about 2.2 million$ per win.
Of that 70 million$, the nonpitchers get 57% and pitchers get 43% (which is the proportionate numbers of 19.4 and 14.6 wins). Or, 40 million$ for nonpitchers and 30 million$ for pitchers. The other 10 million$ in minimum salary would be split 5.6 million$ for nonpitchers and 4.4 million$ for pitchers. So, the total payroll is 46 of 80 for nonpitchers, or 57% for nonpitchers.
Anyone who wants to say otherwise, do so here. I remain ready to change my mind. I also am ready to do battle.
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