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Tuesday, February 02, 2010
The non-static nature of a young groundball pitcher
Good work by Harry:
Ignoring rookie ball, a five-point drop in ground ball rate appears to get picked up mostly by line drives over fly balls by nearly four to one. That’s important, as a ground ball turned into a line drive is about three times as costly as one turned into a fly ball. I know stuff is being redistributed in various directions across batted ball types, but it ends up as I’ve described.
As we know, the run value of a groundball (in MLB) is about the same as the run value of a flyball (if we exclude HR). Once we include the HR, the run value difference is about .15 runs. So, it would be interesting to see what happens to GB pitchers in the minors, whether the conversion of GB to line drive is general (in which case we don’t have any worries), or specific to kinds of pitchers. The difference in run value between a GB and LD is about .45 runs, and that’s enormous.
So, an aging trajectory chart of GB, FB, LD, Pop rates, from minor league to MLB. Great idea, Harry!
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