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Tuesday, March 25, 2008
The next 5 years
This is Rob Neyer‘s list. Does it make sense? Has be balanced current talent level and aging? While I have big problems with Win Shares, we can make some use of my 5-yr Win Shares aging curves. The players we are interested in will follow the “20+ WS” pattern, so focus on that column. A guy who is 22 will generate double the wins as a guy at age 34, and 50% more a guy at age 30. How does Neyer do?
Let’s take ARod. He averaged 34 win shares over the last 3 years. Therefore, his 5-yr looking forward Win Shares for a guy who is 32, would be around an average of 54% of that per year. 34 * 0.54 * 5 = 92 win shares. That’s what we should expect from him over 5 years. Zimmerman (whom I love), at age 23 is expected to be at 84% over 5 years. In order to match ARod, he has to have a current talent level today of 22 win shares: 22 * .84 * 5 = 92. Zimmerman averaged 23 win shares, so that gives him a forecast of 97 win shares. Pretty good, Rob. Pretty good.
You guys can go through the list and see if it makes sense. In post 13, I have a smoothing function that will make life easy for you. In the case of ARod, that would be:
23 + 0.64 * 34 - 0.78 * 32 = 19.8 per year.
Multiply by 5, and you get 99.
Pretty close.
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