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Monday, April 13, 2009
The new WARP is here!
Apparently. Mario Mendoza now comes in at replacement-level, or worse, every year of his career. Just picking out a name at semi-random, Grady Sizemore has a 24.5 WARP, a 26.1 WAR on Fangraphs, or 27.2 WAR as per Rally.
Rally and Fangraphs come closest to what I do, so if Clay has managed to pretty much align himself to them, then I approve. It’s still up in the air how he handles the positional adjustments, so until Clay explains himself, or addresses the issues I brought up in the other thread, WARP still has to be taken with a grain of salt (which is better than the pound of salt you needed before today).
What to make of those people who were defending (the old) WARP? This is the same issue I have with defenders of say Runs Created. Once Bill James finally comes around and admits he was wrong with RC, then what are all his disciples going to do? This is just like 1984, where people defend whatever they are told by people they respect or were bewitched by, even if they don’t understand the underlying logic. People will quote PECOTA percentiles, but what happens when Nate disavows how he created them (which he’d have to if he was being honest with us)?
Be critical with what you see, and if the creators won’t explain themselves enough to defend their work, then don’t preach in their choir.
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