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Monday, May 11, 2009
The new Games Behind
Patriot deconstructs Dewan’s “Games Behind” as shown on Baseball-Reference.com:
In order for the Phillies to pull into the lead, we need nine pairs of opposite outcomes:
3 PHI wins + 3 ATL losses
3 PHI wins + 3 NYN losses
3 PHI wins + 3 FLA lossesIn order for the Astros to pull even, we need nine pairs of opposite outcomes:
9 HOU wins + 9 CHN losses
...
So I would argue that, even if you want to break away from traditional games behind the leader and consider distance behind non-leaders, the pertinent numbers are 12 and 18 in this case, not 9 and 9. The Phillies are in better position than the Astros.In order to convert those figures to something resembling a traditional games behind format (they are half-games from the traditional GB perspective), simply divide by two.
The best way to confirm whether Patriot is right (which is where I have my money) or Dewan, is to look at odds reports, and see where the equivalency is. I’m sure there is one or two of you out there that can run your scenarios to see who has the better chance of making the playoffs in Patriot’s illustration. What say you?
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