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Friday, May 28, 2010
The Nathan-less Twins, or how the Media shuts up all of a sudden
Twins’ bullpen is first in MLB in Situational Wins (WPA/LI), and 4th in MLB in WPA. They are 5th in ERA and 10th in FIP.
This is just like your buddy coming back from Vegas, and only telling you about the days he won big and ignores the days he lost big. “Look at me! I’m nostradamus! I’m going to make 100 predictions, 50 of which will be wrong, but boy will I tell you about the 50 that are right!”
Also reminds me of a good scam I heard. You call this hotline, where you are guaranteed to get the 3 winners of 3 games on NFL Sunday… a free call. You are supposed to call a specific number. Unbeknownst to you, they actually have 8 separate numbers setup. So, all possible combinations of winners are covered. And, for 1/8th of the suckers out there, they’ll be convinced of the forecasting talents of this random hotline.
Media: do me a favor, and next time an ace reliever goes down, just say this: “It’s going to be a tough road for the team, but there’s a decent chance that the team won’t miss him at all. That’s because baseball is subject to such random variation that to pin the outcome of the season to any one player is foolish.”
Yes, I know this means that the 1000 articles that were written about Joe Nathan gets lowered down to 1. And I know that means that you won’t get easy money on the standard woe-is-Twins article when Nathan went down. Be a man about it, and write something with more inspiration.
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