THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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The Mauer forecast

By Tangotiger, 09:27 AM

On June 3rd, I said this:

This year, he has 12 HR in 126 PA, or 57 per 600 PA. ... my WAG is that Mauer will hit 25 per 600 PA from now to the end of the season

So far, he’s at 26 HR in 480 PA. This means that, since I made that statement, he has hit 14 HR in 354 PA.

14 per 354 is a rate of 24 per 600 PA.

“Here endeth the lesson.”
-- Jim Malone

(6) Comments • 2009/09/05 • Sabermetrics • Forecasting

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