from Amazon
Wednesday, December 02, 2009
The latest (and last I hope?) JC thread on this site
Someone sent me this email:
In case you haven’t picked up on this yet, BTF has a post up about another Bradbury aging article:
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/huffington_post_bradbury_is_your_favorite_free_agent_over_the_hill/
Rally gives the PERFECT response (I wish I had thought of doing that):
This is pretty bad. I’m fairly sure I know how he looked at this, and that is not an honest interpretation of the results. I believe he looked at players who were active at age 35 and at 27 or 29 or whatever his peak is. And he’s got it backwards. Knowing that a player has an .850 OPS at age 35, he probably was a .900 player at age 27.
But if you’re looking at age 27 here’s what I find:
All players with OPS between .875 and .925, from 1993 to 2001, who were 27. (start of modern offensive era on one end, and the last year that a 27 year old could have and also have an age 35 season on record. B-Ref PI is my source. 18 players qualify, average OPS is .900One player maintained a near .900 OPS, Jeff Bagwell. Another, Sammy Sosa, was at .849.
Six were between .770 and .804 (Ordonez, Karros, T Martinez, M Williams, M Sweeney, V Castilla).
Four were between .695 and .741 (Ventura, Catalonotto, John Valentin, I Rodriguez). There’s Tim Salmon (628), Mike Lieberthal (.540, 82 PA). Juan Gonzalez almost made it through a single plate appearance before being done for good (but not quite, hurt running to first). Dean Palmer, Todd Hundley, and Trot Nixon were out of baseball.
The weighted average on PA of this group is .779, simple average of the ones who were still playing was .749, and the median (Robin Ventura) was .741
So given that a player has a .900 OPS at age 27, it is more likely that he’s out of baseball entirely at 35 than still posting an .850 OPS or greater. And the median expectation of the guy is Robin Ventura 2003: 242/340/401, 392 AB, 14 HR, 55 RBI.
Thanks Rally. You have given me the strength to endure JC’s ramblings.
Recent comments
Older comments
Page 1 of 344 pages 1 2 3 > Last »Complete Archive – By Category
Complete Archive – By Date