THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

The importance of player makeup

There is no doubt that player makeup is important, if not critical.  This is true not just for ballplayers, but for you and me in our day job.  Without the desire to reach your potential, you’ll be a hasbeen or neverwas.  Which is fine, if that’s what you want.  Some people prefer to reach their potential at other things:

Following the 1982 season, a young Anthony Lachowetz called it a career after a brief three-year stint in the Dodgers system. The epitome of the early ‘80s five-tool player and an the impressive right fielder, he was infinitely talented, possessing excellent power, blazing speed, range, patience, intelligence and a howitzer of an arm. In 1980, he stole a phenomenal 36 bases in just 212 at-bats in rookie ball. In 1982, with high-A Vero Beach, he clubbed 15 homers in 393 at-bats, walking 54 times. He was destined for stardom. He could have started in right field for one of the most prestigious franchises in major league history. He had everything a scout could dream of, except the desire to put his life on hold for the minors. So he gave it all up. As Dr. Lachowetz once told me…

There are two categories of skills for a player: physical tools and mental/emotional tools.  Both are inputs to the output, his actual on-field production.  This is the important thing: once you have the production, the output, you are not going to double-count one of the inputs.  The production is a manifestation of the combination of his physical and mental skills.  For the given production, it is what it is.  We don’t count Pedroia’s MVP season more because he made more of his limited physical skills than others did.

But, for forecasting, then it may very well be that player makeup has a better forecasting path than physical skills.  As a saberist, I don’t dismiss the idea of player makeup.  It’s there, it’s real, and it could very well be the most important attribute of a player.  Much as it would be in a regular day job.

It’s interesting how little minor leaguers are paid, and how talented players, with limited drive, are weeded out.  Imagine instead that minor leaguers are paid half the MLB minimum (200,000$ a year).  Now, those leagues could see a shift of players with more physical tools than mental/emotional ones.  And, that might not be the best thing.  Indeed, it’s very possible that the low pay and rough life is part of the process of becoming a MLBer.  In the NHL, Canadians make a big deal about the Sutter brothers, players with limited physical tools but huge on heart and determination, players who worked on their parents’ farm in the offseason, and on their own.  When it comes to player makeup, it’s possible it’s an important attribute.  Certainly in the lower leagues.  And that’s at least one place where scouting has a leg up on performance analysis.