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Tuesday, August 04, 2009
The ESPN rest-of-season “Projection System”
MattyMatty exposes them and he uses Jason Varitek, as of June 14, 2009:
The first three are self-evident, but what does “Projected” mean, and how could they seriously project a 37 year old catcher to hit 33 homers?
...
This year: .225 Average, .325 On-Base Percentage, .482 Slugging PercentageProjection: .225 Average, .325 On-Base Percentage, .482 Slugging Percentage
...
Yes, ESPN’s ‘projection system’ simply repeats the player’s current stats. No accounting for playing time, injury, player history, splits, or really anything. This leads to some ridiculousness. For example, ESPN projects Raul Ibanez to hit 59 homers, 26 more than he’s ever hit in his life. According to ESPN Jason Bartlett of the Rays will hit 23 homers, which doesn’t sound like much until you realize he has hit 18 in his entire six year career. Tim Wakefield of the Red Sox will apparently win 21 games for Boston, and Kevin Slowey will win 23 for Minnesota.None of these things are impossible, but all of them are extremely unlikely and together they’re about as close to impossible as you can get without actually getting there.
So, what’s my point? ESPN’s projection system is sub-moronic. Good day.
My question to guy in charge of ESPN “forecasting” system:
WTF, dude?
Every time I think “my job here is done”, like when I look at some bloggers who “get it” in terms of evaluating trades (future WAR, salary commitments, service time, chance for prospect bust, etc), I see that there’s still so much to do.
By the way, I’m scheduled to have an article of mine posted on Thursday while Neyer is on vacation.
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