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Monday, March 09, 2009
The effect of replacing your coach mid-season
The NHL does this quite a bit more than MLB. And, the NHL coach is more directly involved with his players than the MLB one is. So, if you are going to see an effect, it’s far more likely to be seen with hockey than baseball. Ty gives us his study:
There were 22 coaching changes between 2000-01 and 2003-04 in which the old coach had at least 20 games and the new coach had at least 20 games.... The old coach saw his teams score 1057 goals and allow 1306. The new coach saw his teams score 1068 goals and allow 1250 goals. -249 versus -182.... On an 82 game basis, we’re talking about 197/243 versus 199/233. ...
When you consider that a coach is probably more likely to get fired when things seem to be going poorly… you really have to ask whether there’s actually any difference in result created by the new coach, or whether there’s some truth to the old saying that you’re never as bad as you look when you’re losing or as good as you look when you’re winning.
Techincal note: I don’t know if Ty did the matched pair properly. You need to weight each component in the pair equally. For example, if you have 20 games with a coach and 62 without, then you need to make sure they both make up an identical weight in each group, whether that weight is 20 or 1 or whatnot.
Regardless, the results pretty much come in as expected…
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