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Monday, November 02, 2009
The death of the 300-game winner?
Bill, in one of those cool Bill James articles, wrote:
It recently occurred to me, though, that one can track this change in a different and perhaps better way by looking at the data for just one season. In 1884, seven major league pitchers won a total of 329 games—59 by Old Hoss Radbourn, 52 by Guy Hecker, 48 by Charlie Buffinton, 46 by Pud Galvin, 43 by Billy Taylor, 41 by Charlie Sweeney, and 40 by either Jim McCormick or Bill Sweeney. Eight pitchers won 40 or more games. If seven pitchers can win 300 games in a season, then, how long would it take a top-flight pitcher to win 300 games? Seven years. You just have to remain one of those top seven pitchers for seven years.
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We started the decade back at 16, then stabilized at 18 (18, 18, 18), and then this year it took 19 pitchers to add together to get a total of 300 wins. 19 is a high number. 19 is the highest number ever, except for the strike-shortened seasons and the years 1876-1878. 19 is close to 21, and at 21, 300 game winners are gone.
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Pitchers don’t have to come out of the game at the 100-pitch mark; it’s just a choice that managers make. If the commissioner succeeds in speeding up the games, one result of that should be more complete games, which would drive this number down, thus making it easier to win 300 games. All I will really say is that it is still possible to win 300 games now. Ten years from now, if that number is 21, 22, 22, 22. . ..it’s over.
I respond:
In his career, Drysdale threw 103 pitches per start. Koufax was at 107. The other main Dodger starters of that time period were under 100. The average was right around 100. The problem is that it takes more pitches per batter, because batters take more. Where it used to be 3.5 pitches per batter, now it’s 3.75. So, 100 pitches at 3.5 per batter and 95 pitches at 3.75 per batter means one guy is facing 28.6 batters and the other is facing 25.3.
Furthermore, if OBP (net of CS) is higher these days as well. That means it takes more batters to get through a game. It’s alot easier to get a decision if you are facing 28.6 out of, I dunno, 38 batters a game than it is to face 25.3 batters out of 39 batters a game.
All that has to happen is to lower the scoring environment, which will increase the number of gazelles, which will decrease the number of guys who rely on walks+K+HR, which will decrease the pitches per batter, etc, etc.
It’s a run environment issue.
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