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Monday, June 15, 2009
The Dave Duncan effect
Kincaid looks at Duncan using a WOWY/Marcel/FIP approach:
We don’t have nearly as large a sample as we’d like to decide anything for sure. Our use of FIP downplays Duncan’s pitch-to-contact philosophy where utilizing those good defenses was more effective than FIP can account for. We can, however, tell a couple important things. One, a pretty good chunk of the percieved Duncan Effect is due to other factors, probably most notably the defenses his teams have had. Two, those other effects don’t cover all of the improvement we see in pitchers Duncan has coached, and they still did noticeably better than expected as a group. This does not prove a Duncan Effect, nor does it assign a real value to it, but it does support the claims and suggest that there is a good chance it does exist.
How come I’ve never heard of this site (3-D Baseball)? I look at the Blogroll it links to, and it’s the standard sabermetric fare. If there are other articles of interest on that site, please link to it.
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