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Sunday, September 12, 2010
The case against Felix and Cy
I think you can make a decent enough argument for a Cy ballot that has Liriano or Lee as #1. For Liriano and Lee, the focus would be either on the K, BB numbers, or the FIP components. Liriano is just not giving up any HR. You’d also have to make that argument while accepting that facing 200 fewer batters doesn’t wipe out all those gains. It’s possible that you can make that argument.
Weaver is a shade behind Felix on the rate stats, but has faced 120 fewer batters. It’d be too hard to make the case for Weaver. Jon Lester is a step behind Weaver, and 160 batters behind Felix. CC is also behind Felix, and the argument would be between CC or Weaver. A similar argument will follow for Price, Cahill, Verlander, and several others, that it would be impossible to put them at #1.
So, I can see ballots where Weaver is at #2 through #5, but not at #1. I can see Liriano anywhere in the top 5. With Felix, it’s hard to see him as anything other than top 3. I just don’t see the argument for #4 for him.
First off, the balloting should be closer than I thought. Secondly, because Felix should be in the top 3 on most saberists ballots, he should win it on “points”, reasoning that Liriano and Lee could land anywhere on the ballot. But if Liriano or Lee wins, it would be justifiable.
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