THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Friday, May 22, 2009

The break-even point of stealing home

By Tangotiger, 09:57 AM

If you think you can be successful at least once in three (and there are two outs), steal home. As Dan quotes Pete Palmer:

the two-out steal of home is the unknown great percentage play

It’s pretty straight-forward to figure out if you have the RE matrix. The run value of the runner on 3B is .387 (with 2 outs). If he’s out, it drops to 0 (end of inning). If he scores, it goes up to 1.117 (1 for the run, and .117 for still leaving the batter at the plate). So, you can gain .730 runs if you score, and lose .387 runs if you are out. That makes the break-even point as 34.6%. The inning, score also play a role in this of course. The “one in three” rule is pretty good to remember.

(7) Comments • 2009/05/23 • Sabermetrics • Baserunning

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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Friday, May 22, 2009

The break-even point of stealing home

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