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Wednesday, February 02, 2011
The best MLE’s in 2010
I revamped my MLE’s. Basically they are component equivalencies derived from looking at the majors to minors (AAA and AA) ratios for players who played at both levels (minors and majors) in the same year or in consecutive years (minors and then majors). The ratios are different, depending upon if you compare the same year or consecutive years, so I basically use the average of the two. I first park and league adjust the component stats. I don’t use different MLE’s for different leagues, as some people do.
Keep in mind that these kinds of MLE’s include regression to the mean. For example, if a player hits really well in the minors, his stats in the majors are not really a one-to-one translation. They are a translation plus a regression.
Look at it this way: Say a player hits 30 HR in AA in 2009. If he played in 2010 in the minors again and his true talent stayed the same, he would likely hit maybe 22 HR (after regression). If he plays in the majors in 2010 and hits 15 HR, the “real” translation is 22 to 15 and not 30 to 15. I, however, and most forecasters, bypass the regression and just use the 30 to 15 translation, which is technically not correct. In fact, it will make lesser players look worse in the majors then they are likely to be. Since we are using the 30 to 15 as the MLE translation, we get a ratio of 2 (or .5) even though the “real” ratio should be 22/15 or around 1.5. So, if a player in the minors hits 10 HR, he will have an MLE of 5. But, if we regressed him first (say, to 9 HR) and then applied the 1.5 ratio, we would have his MLE at 6.
Anyway, here are my leaders for batters and pitchers:
Hitters (>200 PA)
1) Mike Stanton with an OPS+ (MLE OPS divided by the average major league OPS) of 135
2) Brandon Belt 122
3) Clint Robinson 113
4) Kila Kaaihue 113
5) Matt Rizzotti 112
Honorable mention to Rob Chirinos, Brandon Guyer, and Carlos Santana.
Pitchers ( starters only with >100 IP), based on component ERA
1) Anthony Lerew
2) Josh Tomlin
3) Lucas French
4) Casey Coleman
5) Thomas Diamond
Honorable mention to Blake Beavan, Jeremy Hellickson, and Elih Villanueva.
For relievers only with more than 50 IP:
1) Clay Rapada
2) Jon Albaladejo
3) Justin Thomas
4) Matt Reynolds
5) Robert Manuel
Mention to Joe Bateman, Jason Buursma, Josh Kinney, and Josh Wilkie.
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