THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Monday, November 19, 2007

The Best and Worst Pitchers

I just finished my projections for next year.  I don’t project playing time (other than classifying a pitcher as starter, reliever, or both/either) and I don’t go beyond next year, so my “best” and “worst” players are always by “rate” and don’t consider longevity beyond next year, chance of getting injured, etc.  When I rate a reliever, it is as compared to other relievers, and starters are compared to other starters.  For pitchers who have done both, their rating is as compared to pitchers of their primarily role (starter or reliever).

The worst pitchers are tough to isolate if only because they tend to be in and out of the majors and they tend to change roles a lot, as would be expected of a bad pitcher.  Rather than using an IP qualifier as Tango did in his “worst pitcher in baseball” thread, I’ll just wing it.  If it looks to me like said pitcher has been around at least a little bit in the majors the last few years, I’ll include him.  If it looks like he is permanantly gone (although you never know) then I probably won’t - like Ponson. 

One more thing.  I make rough league adjustments, so the best pitcher in the NL is probably not the best in baseball.  AL pitchers are substantiallty better than NL pitchers, by I think around .25 runs per 9.  So, for example, a pitcher in the NL who is projected to be .25 runs better than the average NL pitcher is only an average pitcher in the AL and a slightly (around .125 runs) above average pitcher in the NL and AL combined.

Best Starters

J. Santana
Harden (if and when healthy)
Peavy
Webb
Halladay
Beckett
Bedard

Worst Starters

Maroth
Mulder
Runelvys Hernandez
Jerome Williams
Victor Zambrano
Mark Redman
Eaton
C. Park

Best Relievers

Nathan
Betancourt
Ryan
Papelbon
Rivera
Putz
Street

Worst Relievers

Gryboski
Meas
Venafro
Childers
F. German
Bayliss
Kolb