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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Wednesday, February 24, 2010

The 75th percentile PECOTA

By Tangotiger, 01:15 AM

A rather fascinating post by Clay that I missed 10 days ago. I of course love the testing he did.  It would be interesting to see if the “optimistic” adjustment can be applied to Chone, ZiPS, and Marcel to see if they have to take advantage of what Clay is seeing.

Truth is, Marcel was simply done as a quick best fit on rate stats.  But, Clay is getting into a higher level of testing for reducing the error, and that includes the playing time for year x+1.  It would be cool to see if we need to make adjustments to minimize this error.

(4) Comments • 2010/02/24
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May 26 11:15
What makes for a successful GM?

May 26 07:27
“Why Kickstarter works”

May 26 03:03
Pete Palmer’s new book: Basic Ball

May 26 01:11
Largest demonstration in Canadian history?

May 25 19:41
What sabermetrics is NOT

May 25 16:59
Howard Stern

May 25 15:12
Do pitcher’s reach back for velocity when needed?

May 25 12:51
Chad Curtis

May 25 11:26
Lack of hustle during a game

May 25 10:58
Rooting for laundry

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February 24, 2010
The 75th percentile PECOTA

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