THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Friday, November 20, 2009

Thank you Keith Law… and I acknowledge Will Carroll’s contribution

For decades, it was fans reacting to writers’ selections for the major awards.  Now that two non-traditional writers were admitted into their midst, it is the Holy Writers who are outraged.  You see, these two guys dared to be the ONLY writers not to vote for all three of the biggies (Lincecum, Wainright, Carpenter), as they dared to list Vazquez and Haren.

Were the Law and Carroll selections out of left field?  Well, let’s turn to what the fans think:
Ballots in the top 3:
1021 Tim Lincecum
867 Chris Carpenter
788 Adam Wainwright
167 Javier Vazquez
159 Dan Haren
202 Other

This is based out of 1080 ballots.  Clearly, we have some crappy fans.  Can’t win them all, but they are submerged under the avalanche of good fans.  If let’s say we equate the 1021 for Lincecum to 32 ballots (the number of Cy ballots cast in the NL), we can divide all the numbers above by 31.9 to get this:

32 Tim Lincecum
27 Chris Carpenter
25 Adam Wainwright
5 Javier Vazquez
5 Dan Haren
2 Other

We can see how Law and Carroll barely made a dent here.  Left to the knowledgeable fans, if they had 32 ballots to cast, we’d have seen more support for Vazquez and Haren than we did.  Indeed, when picking between Lincecum and Wainright, the only advantage for Wainright in any category is his 8 extra IP (and of course, the Cardinals W/L record when Wainright was pitching).  Otherwise, Lincecum should have been listed on every ballot at least one spot ahead of Wainright.

Law and Carroll listing Vazquez and Haren on their ballots is justifiable from some reasonable perspective.  Listing Wainright ahead of Lincecum on any ballot is not.  Any phony outrage the Holy Writers wish to spout in order to mail-in an article should be directed toward that point.

And for what it’s worth, when I asked my readers for the best pitcher in MLB (after Greinke), Lincecum led the way with 46% of the vote, ahead of King Felix.  Carpenter, the only other NL pitcher listed on the ballot, ended up with 8% of the vote.

In the end, the end results of the Cy balloting ended up conforming to the way the Fans see things to begin with.  Having Law and Carroll there tipped the scales in just the right way (take out their two ballots, and Carpenter wins).

UPDATE: Oh, and I meant to say: I find it funny how the Holy Writers don’t want us to focus so much on the numbers, and then their arguments boil down to interpreting the numbers.  Exactly why is it that the Holy Writers believe they know how to interpret the numbers they hate better than others?

Bill James:

To address the question on a somewhat more sophisticated level. . .changing opinions is not a rear-guard action.  There are cutting-edge thinkers, there are well-informed people who keep up with the cutting-edge thinking, and then there are several grades of people who lag behind the curve.  You don’t change opinions by worrying about the people who lag behind the curve.  They’ll catch up eventually.  You change opinions by addressing the people who are nearer the head of the parade.

UPDATE again:
A reader at Hardball Times pointed out the flaw in Neyer’s logic.  The problem is not with the ballots of those two guys, but that they left out Carpenter altogether.

I have to admit that I haven’t read many of the articles about this as yet, and maybe this has been pointed out already, but I have to say this:  Even had Law and Carroll put Carpenter on their ballots it’s questionable he would have won.  If he had been on the ballots in place of Vazquez and Haren, and in the exact same placements as Vazquez and Haren, Carpenter would only have received four more points - and that would still have been two fewer than Lincecum.

Indeed, it’s a good thing Law and Carroll were there to provide the sanity to include Lincecum at the top of their ballot.  Because if you remove the Law and Carroll ballots altogether, Carpenter wins.  If you put Carpenter on their ballots (be it in the 2 or 3 spot), no one complains about it, and Lincecum still wins. 

So, the Law and Carroll ballots had zero effect in the end, other than spotlighting two guys who deserved some spotlight.  Maybe the Holy Writers can go to a 5-deep list in the future?