THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Tuesday, February 08, 2011

Testing the 2007-2010 Forecasting Systems - part 2 - Does Marcel over-regress?

By Tangotiger, 11:46 AM

Does Marcel Over-Regress?

There’s a simple enough way to answer that question. Look for all the highly forecasted players in wOBA, and see how they actually turned out.

Note: In all the breakdowns below, I ONLY looked at those players with a “reliability” of .70 or higher. Roughly speaking, that means the total PA accumulated over the last three years that was used for the forecast was about 700. Basically, if you had 230 PA in each of the last 3 years, you’re in the sample below.

(28) Comments • 2011/02/11 • Sabermetrics • Forecasting

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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Tuesday, February 08, 2011

Testing the 2007-2010 Forecasting Systems - part 2 - Does Marcel over-regress?

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