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Thursday, January 27, 2011

Testing SIERA

By Tangotiger, 12:36 PM

Matt does a bangup job of testing SIERA every which-way. In the comments section, I said the following:

Good stuff Matt. Can you include Batted Ball FIP in your testing?

Also, can you test with unadjusted ERA, not the park-adjusted? After all, FIP itself is unadjusted, and you can’t take Ubaldo’s unadjusted FIP in 2009 and compare it to his park-adjusted ERA in 2010. This is clearly unfair to FIP. Alternatively, park-adjust FIP in 2009 to test to park-adjusted ERA in 2010.

SIERA positions itself as being park-neutral, so comparing park-neutral SIERA in 2009 will obviously give it an advantage to park-neutral 2010 ERA.

Finally: we really don’t care about ERA by RA. The UER is some biased construct, as FB pitchers like Santana will give up far fewer UER than GB pitchers like Brandon Webb.

(8) Comments • 2011/01/28 • Sabermetrics • Forecasting • Pitchers

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January 27, 2011
Testing SIERA