THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Friday, March 25, 2011

Team most likely to win its division?

By Tangotiger, 04:56 PM

Neyer points to this interesting exchange. And BPro is suggesting that there are a few teams with a 50-60% chance of winning its division (Redsox, Rangers, Phillies, Giants). Each of those teams is forecasted to be at least 2 wins better than the 2nd best team in the division.

So, that’s really all you need. If you are at least 2 wins better than the next best team in the division, you have at least a 50% chance of winning the division. You don’t need me to tell you that an estimate of being 2 wins better has a large enough uncertainty level around it (probably 3-5 wins?) that you can make a convincing case for a dozen teams to have the best chance of winning its division.

What is Vegas saying?

(7) Comments • 2011/03/27 • Sabermetrics • Playoffs

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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Friday, March 25, 2011

Team most likely to win its division?

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