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Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Tangotiger challenge of the day: If not WAR, then what?
What WAR does is provide a framework, a systematic consistent way of thinking. If someone wants to say that it is systematically wrong, that’s fine. Then offer your alternative.
I’ve mentioned this in the past, but, I’ll repeat it anyway. Suppose you had to pay for performance after the fact. And you go through each player’s season, and say: “hmmm… I’d pay 12MM$ for that season… I’d pay 21MM$ for that season… I’d pay 3MM$ for that season”, and so on and so forth. Apply whatever methodology you want, but tell us what you did. If for example you look at Jack Morris’ Game 7 in 1991, and after the fact, you’d say: “my god! that game, by itself, I’d pay 10MM$ for it.... it was that freaking awesome!”. That’s fine. We’ll have to do the 10MM$ or 8MM$ awesome Game 7 performances on other pitchers too.
So, this is my challenge to you. Using present day dollars for free agency, and seeing the results after the fact, tell me how much you would have paid for Jack Morris’s career in its entirety, year-by-year. Then, I want you to repeat that for Dave Stieb and Orel Hershiser (don’t forget 1988… now that was freaking awesome). And if you have alot of time on your hands: Bert Blyleven. And if you want to have fun: Dennis Martinez, Frank Tanana, Rick Reuschel, Dan Quisenberry.
Using ANY method you want of your choosing. Just be consistent, even emotional, but be able to defend yourself.
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