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Thursday, December 09, 2010
Tangotiger challenge of the day
From mettle:
I’m struck by: “The above players, in the season preceding those 5 years, had 5.8 WAR.” Am I right to assume the 5.8 => 4.4 1-year drop is what we’d expect from regression?
Yes. Remember, I selected on the high WAR. By definition, it includes alot more good luck than bad luck.
If you take 70% of 5.8 and 30% of 2.0 you get 4.66, roughly close to what we have here.
And you can do that with ANYTHING. Go ahead and try it and report back on the results. I’ve give you a few to start with:
1. Take the top 10 in SLG in each of the last 10 years, and tell me what the overall average SLG of these 100 players was in the following year
2. Repeat with top 10 in OBP
3. Repeat with top 10 in HR
4. Repeat with top 10 in ERA
5. Repeat with top 10 in K
I haven’t done this myself, but I already know the answer is for year T+1: It’s going to be roughly 70% of whatever their average was in year T, and 30% of whatever the league average is.
Something close to that. Prove me wrong…
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