from Amazon
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
Tango’s Lab: Relief advantage on inherited/bequeathed runners
I did something really quick here, given the data I have easy access to in the middle of the day. I figured the career BaseRuns for all starting pitchers from 1993-2010, and compared it to their “assigned” runs allowed. The BaseRuns was 4.98 per 9IP, but their assigned runs allowed was 5.05. I say assigned because of the rules in assigning runs to pitchers that are bequeathed to relievers. Anyway, we see that starting pitchers’ RA9 is 0.07 too high.
I did the same for relievers: 4.43 BaseRuns, 4.32 assigned runs. That means the relief pitchers’ RA9 is 0.11 too low.
So, when we need to run regression or tests against assigned runs allowed, you need to account for this. The best way is to use RE24 of course. When a starting pitcher leaves runners for his relievers, he gets assigned a partial run for each runner. And a reliever gets the rest of the run if he scores, or a negative run if he strands him. If you don’t have easy access to RE24, then just give a blanket -0.07 for starters and +0.11 for relievers.
***
A “simple” way to give the partial credit if you don’t want to bother with RE24:
(3 - outs) x (.05 + .08 x Bases)
So, if you have 1 out, and a runner on second base, you get:
(3 - 1) x (.05 + .08 x 2)
= 0.42
Therefore, the starting pitcher gets 0.42 runs for leaving that runner on base. The reliever would get 0.58 if he scores and -0.42 if he doesn’t.
***
UPDATE
If that is still too complicated, then:
Partial Runs = (1 + Bases - Outs) x 0.21
In the above example, you get the same 0.42.
Recent comments
Older comments
Page 1 of 344 pages 1 2 3 > Last »Complete Archive – By Category
Complete Archive – By Date