from Amazon
Thursday, February 03, 2011
Tango’s Lab: FutureFIP
FIP is a wonderfully simple stat, that owes its existence to DIPS. It’s raison d’etre was SOLELY to represent a subset of a pitcher’s current season performance. It made no opinion as to its predictability. That’s why the HR is weighted so high: because HR generate alot of runs.
Now, some people would like to know how “real” each of those components are, so that they can use FIP for predictive purposes. Well, good ole FIP is not going to do the job (even though it does a pretty job in any case). No, what we need is FutureFIP. And that’s what I’ll attempt to do.
***
Note: when I say BB, I mean BB-IBB+HBP.
Let’s say we want to keep to the basics, and use IP as the denominator. How do we change the classic FIP:
ERA = (13*HR + 3*BB - 2*SO)/IP + 3.2
Here then is my first stab at…
FutureFIP = (6*HR + 2*BB - 2.5*SO)/IP + 5.12
(Note: FutureFIP is on a scale of RA9 and NOT ERA.)
So, what do we see here? Well, SO become more predictive, BB less predictive, and HR much less predictive. But, and this is important, HR still count. You don’t give it a weight of 0.
***
Now, we really don’t like IP in that denominator, right? Let’s present a FutureFIP equation with PA in the denominator. So, we have:
FutureFIP = 4*(6*HR + 2*BB - 2.5*SO)/PA + 5.10
***
As always, that 5.1ish floats to match the league RA9.
That’s my first volley. Someone want to do better?
Recent comments
Older comments
Page 1 of 344 pages 1 2 3 > Last »Complete Archive – By Category
Complete Archive – By Date