from Amazon
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Tango’s Lab: Batted Ball FIP
Just fooling around here. I ran a regression of all plate outcomes (BB, SO, GB, outfield FB, infield FB, line drive, bunts) per PA against ER per PA. And then I ran a regression of the same plate outcomes against Outs per PA. I get these coefficients:
ER outs PlateOutcomes
0.35 0.08 rBB
-0.12 0.99 rSO
0.04 0.80 rGB
0.39 0.39 rLD
0.19 0.70 rOFFB
-0.26 1.21 rIFFB
-0.18 0.88 rBunts
And then I applied that to a pitcher’s career total (2002-09, min 1500 PA) to get their estimated ER, estimated Outs, and calculated ERA as ER/Outs*27. The correlation between this estimate and ERA is r=.81. For SIERA, it was r=.77. FIP was r=.86 (but that’s because it uses HR).
Anyway, just something quick I did.
(41) Comments • 2010/12/16
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