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Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Tango/ESPN - the year after the breakout year

By Tangotiger, 10:57 AM

Clayton Kershaw (2.79 ERA), Felix Hernandex (2.49), Jair Jurrjens (2.60), and Tommy Hanson (2.89) had their first breakout seasons in 2009. Can we expect them to repeat these performances in 2010? If history is any guide, the answer is “no”.

To clarify, I’m defining a breakout season as one where the pitcher allows runs at less than 80 percent of league average. For example, John Danks broke out at 72 percent in 2008, while Matt Cain (78 percent) and Chad Billingsley (71 percent) broke out in 2007. What happened to these young pitchers the year after the breakout? Billingsley kept pace at 73 percent, while Danks regressed to 83 percent and Cain to 84 percent.

From 1920 to 2008…

(6) Comments • 2010/03/24 • Sabermetrics • ESPN

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March 24, 2010
Tango/ESPN - the year after the breakout year