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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Tango/ESPN - payroll inequity

By Tangotiger, 11:58 AM

My article:

Imagine a league where you have a three-team division made up of the Yankees, Redsox, and Mets, and two of them make the playoffs each year. And imagine a league where you have a fifteen-team division made up of low spenders, like the Royals, Pirates, and Twins among others, and only two of them make playoffs each year. This would be a ridiculous league format, right? Well, welcome to 1998 through 2009!
...
Chance of Playoffs = (Payroll Index / 2) - 23

If you spend at the league average (Payroll Index = 100 percent), your chance of making the playoffs is 27 percent. If you spend at double the league average (Payroll Index = 200 percent), your chances are 77 percent. And if you spend at half the league average, your chances dwindle to almost 0.

(25) Comments • 2010/04/14 • SabermetricsESPNFinances
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April 13, 2010
Tango/ESPN - payroll inequity