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Friday, December 12, 2008
sUZR v bUZR
I matched almost all of the players from MGL’s STATS-based UZR (heretofore called sUZR) to his BIS-based UZR (bUZR). Here are some findings, combined from 2003-2008:
Andruw Jones: He has 819 “games” in sUZR and 731 “games” in bUZR. The way MGL counts games is that he bases it on the expected number of outs of when he plays divided by the expected number of outs for the average CF in a game. (So, if he has say 2400 expected out, and the average CF gets 3 outs per game, then this counts as 800 games.) Jones has an enormous difference. The result? In sUZR, he’s a collective -5, and in bUZR he’s the best fielder in baseball from 2003-08, at +112 runs. Clearly, this is not some random bias here, but a systematic difference in how a STATS scorer and how a BIS scorer is scoring plays with Andruw Jones on the field. Remember, MGL is using an identical engine. It’s the classic GIGO.
Carlos Beltran: He has 871 sUZR “games” and 864 bUZR “games”. Good. Except Beltran is +86 runs in STATS and +9 in BIS. This is the second largest gap. I’m puzzled that he can have the same number of expected outs, get an actual number of identical outs, and the difference should therefore be close.... except it’s not.
The 4th (Sizemore), 6th (Torii) and 9th (Cameron) largest gaps are all CF. That’s 5 of the top 9. Even Adam Everett is scathed: +121 (!!) in sUZR and +70 (!) in bUZR. If I’m running an MLB team, the first thing I’d ask for is quality control tests to determine why are BIS and STATS delivering such different results, and which one is delivering the better ones.
Among the 240 players with the most games in that time frame, half of them have a difference of 4.0 runs per 150 games or less. 10% of the players have a difference of at least 10 runs per 150 G. The standard deviation among these 240 players (average of 600 games) is 6.0 runs per 150 G.
So, if ever you wanted to know why MGL (face 1) loves Andruw Jones while MGL (face 2) thinks that Jones is an average centerfielder, even though he’s using the same brain, well now you know: he’s either being fed a filet mignon or a hamburger. If you have a problem, take it up with STATS/BIS, and not MGL.
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