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Monday, March 05, 2007
SuperVORP
I haven’t seen this anywhere on their site, except in a recent chat, where Nate Silver says:
SuperVORP is basically VORP + defense, so a player with a VORP of 20 and a +3 defensive rating will have a SuperVORP of 23, all else being equal… Basically, it’s trying to combine the best features of VORP and WARP. WARP sets the replacement level bar a little bit too low for my tastes.
Finally. Nate is being rather kind in stating that WARP’’s replacement level is “a little bit too low”. It doesn’t make much sense for BP to have two different measures that try to describe the same thing (or will end up being used the same way). I’m not sure why Clay is as insistent as he is. In any case, big kudos to Nate for going ahead and using the better measure. Eventually, as soon as they incorporate Dan Fox’s baserunning, they’ll have SuperDuperVORP, and will essentially be a competiting measure to MGL’s SuperLWTS. Their biggest difference will be in MGL’s use of UZR for fielding, as opposed to the use of non-play-by-play data by BP.
Now, if we can get Keith to change the basis of VORP:
Team PA’s T_PA =162*25.5/(1-T_OBP)
Team AB’s T_AB =T_PA*(1-T_OBP)/(1-T_AVG)
Team Runs T_RUNS =T_OBP*T_SLG*T_AB
Which is:
Runs = T_OBP*T_SLG*(162*25.5/(1-T_OBP))*(1-T_OBP)/(1-T_AVG)
Which, if I’m doing this right, reduces itself to:
constant * OBP * SLG / (1-AVG)
I’ll be back later to prove that this is wrong. Keith should use BaseRuns as the basis.
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