THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Monday, December 03, 2007

Subjective is objective

Neil Huntington:

I place a lot of value in numbers, but there are some things that can’t be quantified, and there are times scouting reports are needed to understand the elements behind the numbers. For instance, you could be looking at a pitcher in A-ball with high strikeouts and low walks. This pitcher features an 82 mph fastball which leads to frequent contact (low walks) but also has a decent changeup and a big-breaking curveball that he uses as a chase pitch to get a lot of strikeouts in A-ball. A scout is likely to recognize that while Low-A hitters will chase the breaking pitch out of the zone, hitters at the higher levels--especially in the major leagues--won’t chase and will make him throw his soft fastball over the plate where it is likely to get hit hard. The scout’s observations will confirm that the strikeout numbers at the lower levels are an exploitation of immature hitters and likely will not translate as the player progresses toward the big leagues. When scouting amateur players, there are key statistical indicators that have to be weighed more subjectively because of the level of competition. We want the data, because it will tell us something, but we also want the scouting reports to augment that data.

It seems to me, he just quantified it.  I agree totally with his perspective.  It’s simply a matter of taking subjective evaluations and objective evaluations, and quantifying it.  You note the guy’s fastball speed, how much movement it is, location, how he mixes up his pitches, he sweats profusely on hitter’s counts, whatever.  Quantify anything.  Once you do that, the world is your oyster.  Scouts would have a big part in my world.

We have a lot of work to do, but we have an outstanding statistical consultant on board, and we’re creating a computer system to help us not only store, track and access data but to also analyze the data that has been collected.

Name names please.  Many teams do so (like Redsox, Cardinals, Indians).  Why not here?