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Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Strasburg predictions
Presumably, they are not going to pitch him any more this season. So, let’s see how he did against the forecasts. Most fans preferred Cliff Lee to Strasburg this year. That was an easy call.
Unders on wins and K and no hitters, and overs on ERA.
BABIP being Rivera-esque? Nope.
Still think giving him a 4/100MM deal from June 2010 to May 2014 is smarter for Strasburg than Verlander and Josh Johnson? Heck, after less than 3 months, that whole list would look radically different.
His ERA+ is 141, and if we had RA+, it would probably be 134, or he gave up runs at 74% of league average. I said:
Isn’t it better to say that Strasburg’s runs allowed talent is a 65% - 100% pitcher of league average, with a mean forecast of close to 80%? Basically, you give me the best college or Japanese performance ever, and I say that the UPSIDE forecast (two standard deviations from his mean forecast) for that pitching line cannot be better than Tom Seaver.
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If you want to give Strasburg a 50% index as his upside, you probably give him 100% as his downside. The uncertainty range has to be great. That puts him at 75% as his mean. That’s roughly 1 run better than league average.That’s as far as you can go.
Now, Brian did forecast a 2.86 ERA, compared to his actual 2.91. The park/league context for Strasburg, according to B-R.com is 4.10. In addition, he had 25 runs allowed and 22 earned runs. As you know, ER blows, and RA rules. In order to convert all ERA numbers to RA numbers, you need to multiply by 1.08. So, Brian’s 2.86 forecast is 3.09 (based on a ?? run environment… probably 4.70?), his actual RA is 3.31, compared to a park-league of 4.43.
Good for Brian for being really out there on the forecast, and coming in pretty well overall (with some luck do to a depressed run environment). PECOTA though, forecast only a 10% chance of being better than 3.94. Big ouch on that one.
Anyway, if what we’ve experienced here is not enough to dial back forecasts to something reasonable, then nothing will ever prove it to some people.
Don’t forecast a rookie to have a runs allowed rate at anything better than 75% and I’ll shut my mouth.
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