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Friday, February 04, 2011
Strasburg 2011
Brian at BPro:
I’ll have to point out to Tango that Pecota projects Strasburg for a 2.42 ERA (if he would have pitched in 2011) while Oliver says 2.50
As wonderfully as Strasburg pitched and utterly dominated the 500 hitters last year in MLB and the minor leagues, it’s simply unsupportable to forecast an ERA that is 60% of league average.
I don’t think if I took the single-best season ever (Gooden 1985 or one of Pedro’s years, and those guys faced 1000 MLB batters) and I limited my knowledge to those 1000 batters, that I would come out with a forecast of 60% of league average. Probably at best 65% (ERA+ of 154). And that’s with 1000 batters faced.
If you are including fastball speed or other “tools”, then yes, you can might get to 60% for Gooden or Pedro or Strasburg.
***
It’s 1:30 AM as I write this, so maybe someone will do the legwork by the time I wake up (and possibly even surprise me). According to BR.com, the top 25 ERA+ seasons since 1969 are these:
ERA+ Year Player
229 1985 Dwight Gooden
222 1997 Roger Clemens
219 1997 Pedro Martinez
217 1996 Kevin Brown
213 1990 Roger Clemens
208 1978 Ron Guidry
205 2009 Zack Greinke
197 2002 Randy Johnson
194 1971 Tom Seaver
189 1971 Wilbur Wood
188 2001 Randy Johnson
187 1998 Greg Maddux
186 1999 Randy Johnson
185 1971 Vida Blue
185 1985 John Tudor
182 1972 Steve Carlton
181 2000 Randy Johnson
180 1989 Bret Saberhagen
179 1993 Kevin Appier
178 2004 Randy Johnson
177 2009 Tim Lincecum
176 1992 Roger Clemens
175 1973 Tom Seaver
174 1998 Roger Clemens
174 2009 Felix Hernandez
Can someone show us the ERA+ for their NEXT season? I would bet that the median ERA+ will be 150-155. It’s not going to be 170. Surprise me.
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