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Friday, February 27, 2009
Stealing in high-leverage situations
Jeff exposes Ichiro as a guy who runs as much as anyone else, proportionately, with the game on the line.
Looking at a few guys historically:
Raines: 260 SB in high-LI, 134 low-LI, even though he’s had half as many opportunities in high-LI situations!
Tim Raines, in high-leverage situations, has reached 1B or 2B 755 times (1B+2B+BB+HB+ROE), and has 260 SB, 49 CS. That’s 0.34 successful SB per opportunity.
Tim Raines, in low-leverage situations, has reached 1B or 2B 1312 times, and has 134 SB and 15 CS. That’s .10 SB per opp.
Do you see that? He stole a base 10% of the time in low-leverage situations, but 34% of the time in high-leverage situations.
So, to all those BBWAA writers who said that he didn’t steal enough… yeah, he didn’t pad his SB totals when the game situation didn’t matter.
How about Rickey Henderson? He reached 1B or 2B 898 times in high-LI, and stole 394 bases (and 72 CS). That’s 0.44 SB per opp. In low-LI, he stole 242 bases in 1715 opps, or a rate of 0.14.
Hmmm… looks like Raines and Rickey were both pretty smart. They stole a bit over three times as much in high-LI than low-LI situations. Is this the pattern for most top-end basestealers? And has this changed over the years?
Thanks Jeff, for giving me something to think about.
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