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Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Splitting the batting lines into binomial metrics
Pizza lays out the idea. As studes noted, we talked about this alot in the past.
What Brian suggests in the comments is the way I normally approach the problem, as the way Voros did it. Here are my aging patterns by these metrics.
I also echo Pizza’s position on where to put the HR. Sometimes I do it the way Pizza says it, and sometimes the way Voros says it. The fact of the matter is that you can construct two equally plausible scenarios.
There is an undeniable relationship between K, BB, and HR. There is also an undeniable relationship between HR and FB (and to a lesser extent LD). The only rigtht way to do it is to model this relationship. If for example you do it as Pizza proposes it, then you need to have an additional function on the HR/FB rate that includes the K and BB rate. If you do it as Voros proposes it, you need to include the FB rate to apply to the HR rate.
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